THE head of Chinese shipping giant China Ocean Shipping (Group) says the dry bulk market will recover by the second half of 2008, but remains less confident about containership prospects, partly because of America’s protectionist trade stance.
Cosco president and chief executive Captain Wei Jiafu has urged Americans to resume buying Chinese goods again to revive global trade.
He also said he had successfully recommended last month that the Chinese government boost procurements in Europe, in a move to boost capacity on trade lanes from Asia.
“I strongly believe that bulk carriers will recover by the second half of this year,” Capt Wei told the Connecticut Maritime Association media conference today.
He cited a 1.4% rise in Chinese electricity consumption in the first half of March as proof of industrial growth. “That means customers and users are increasing, that factories and manufacturing [have] already started,” he said.
Despite Cosco’s dry bulk optimism, its executives are asking for steep discounts as they renegotiate long-term charter rates for bulk carriers in its fleet chartered from European and American owners.
The deals were signed at higher rates before the freight market collapse in the last quarter of 2008, and Cosco is taking a very tough approach, according to those familiar with the talks.
Capt Wei said Cosco’s financial status was healthy and that the company had available credit of Yuan75.4bn ($11bn) and Yuan70bn in cash.
The government-owned shipping and terminal group is one of the world’s largest, with a fleet of 800 ships exceeding 50m dwt, including 160 containerships and more than 200 bulk carriers.
Capt Wei also said he had recommended to government authorities that China banned single hull tankers to encourage scrapping in the global fleet.
But he provided few details of Cosco’s fleet expansion plans or newbuilding cancellations within the company’s dry bulk orderbook, estimated at 66 bulk carriers.
Capt Wei also said that there had been no pressure from the Chinese government to purchase new ships from Chinese yards, amid fears about half of the global fleet orderbook will struggle to gain financial backing.
In January 2008 the company decided to scrap plans to order 126 bulk carriers, as “a short term readjustment” to plans to establish the world’s largest fleet.
He said Chinese GDP growth forecasts of 8% would be reached in 2009, despite a lower World Bank forecast of 6.5%, and attributed the Baltic Dry Index recovery in February to the Chinese government’s $580bn stimulus plan.



Shipping executives say boxship sector yet to hit bottom
OVER 75% of shipping executives polled by Lloyd’s List during the Connecticut Maritime Association conference agreed that conditions in the global containership sector had yet to hit bottom.
The survey respondents included US and European shipowners, operators, regulators, lawyers, fund managers and bankers, and revealed an overwhelmingly negative outlook for the shipping sector.
The Lloyd’s List industry survey asked five questions related to major maritime issues as the industry grapples with what US commentators are now calling “the Great Recession”.
A majority of respondents thought that safety standards would slip because of the credit crunch, and also questioned banks’ commitment to shipping.
With freight rates slightly above breakeven levels for ships purchased and financed at the height of the boom, and with bulk carriers, containerships and gas carriers going into lay-up, there was widespread acknowledgement that owners will cut safety and maintenance corners to save money.
Nearly 87% of the 30 people who responded to the question agreed that the credit crunch threatened the maritime industry’s drive to improve safety standards.
Hopes that significant cancellations would help reduce the bloated bulk carrier newbuilding orderbook in order to improve freight rates are also low.
Less than 41% of the 32 respondents believed that bulk carrier newbuilding cancellations in 2010 would not exceed 60%.
These cancellation levels are among the most optimistic scenarios currently under discussion by owners and operators.
Just under two-thirds of the respondents said that banks would not remain committed to shipping.
There was little sign indication of relief for the global containerships fleet either. Just 26 of the respondents agreed that the container sector had yet to hit bottom.
A sharp contraction in global trade has seen port throughput in key US ports fall by more than 30% in the months of January and February.
But 78% of those executives surveyed believed the worst was yet to come.